Lalor
recorded Victoria’s largest two-party preferred swing to the Liberals
at the federal election. But it is not a sign that the electorate is
turning its back on the ALP, according to a leading political analyst.
Labor’s share of two-party preferred votes fell from 72 per cent
in 2010 to 62 per cent on September 7, leaving MP-elect Joanne Ryan on
the wrong side of a 9.87 per cent swing.
Across the state, the swing against the ALP was 5.47 per cent.
Monash University lecturer Nick Economou said the shift towards
the Liberal Party in Lalor was not surprising and was a result of former
MP Julia Gillard’s success.
Dr Economou said across Victoria, the ALP won 55 per cent of
two-party preferred votes at the 2010 election. Votes are usually split
close to 50-50.
In Lalor, Ms Gillard’s two-party preferred share increased by more than 6 per cent from the 2007 election to 72 per cent, which Dr Economou said was unusually high.
“We would expect to see a result of about 62 per cent, which Joanne Ryan recorded at this election,” he said.
“The swing in Lalor was always going to be 5 per cent bigger than anywhere in the country because of the 2010 results.
“It is a correction from the last election. Joanne Ryan is not any better or worse [than Ms Gillard].”
Dr Economou said Lalor remained a safe Labor seat.
He attributed the rise of minor parties, whose candidates picked
up a quarter of Lalor’s primary votes, to there being a “Caulfield Cup
field of minor candidates” in the electorate.
“The more candidates there are the more likely the vote spreads.”
