Preliminary finals aren’t just another step to the Grand Final – they’re the biggest hurdle in football. This weekend, the MCG will decide it all: Geelong v Hawthorn on Friday night, and Collingwood v Brisbane on Saturday night. And in my eyes, two sides look primed to tear the games apart.
Geelong v Hawthorn
Hawthorn’s September run has been gutsy. They stunned Adelaide, and Jai Newcombe was a bull through the middle – one of the best individual finals performances I’ve seen in a while. But prelims are different. They expose not just talent, but system, discipline and depth.
Geelong thrive in that environment. They’re ruthless in strangling opposition ball movement, pinning teams in defensive half and grinding them down until the mistakes come. Finals are built on repeat efforts and suffocating pressure — and no team executes that better than the Cats. Hawthorn will scrap, but system beats spirit nine times out of ten in September.
Prediction: Geelong by 25 points – controlled from start to finish.
Collingwood v Brisbane
This is the blockbuster. Brisbane are the defending premiers and they look like a side ready to flex again. Their midfield intensity is enormous – Josh Dunkley’s tackling, their spread from stoppage, and the way they surge the ball forward under pressure will trouble Collingwood badly.
Up forward, the match-breaker is Charlie Cameron. He loves the MCG stage, and against a Collingwood backline that hates chaos ball inside 50, he and the Lions’ small forwards can do real damage. Add the pressure acts of Cam Rayner and Lincoln McCarthy, and suddenly Collingwood’s rebound game gets strangled before it starts.
Collingwood will fight – they always do – but their polish and ball use won’t matter if Brisbane bring heat for four quarters. This is where reigning premiers remind everyone why they wear the crown.
Prediction: Brisbane by 19 points – Cameron to have a night out.
Final Word
Geelong’s system is ruthless. Brisbane’s pressure is suffocating. When the smoke clears at the ‘G, it won’t be about romance or underdogs – it’ll be about the two sides best built to survive prelim football. And that’s why I see a Geelong v Brisbane Grand Final in 2025
